Enverus Intelligence® Research’s (EIR) long-term load forecast model considers historical drivers of power demand across the Lower 48. It forecasts the total load in the U.S. to grow 42% by 2050 from today due to population growth, increased data center demand, cryptocurrency mining growth, carbon capture and storage (CCUS), green hydrogen plant demand and electric vehicle (EV) adoption (Figure 1). SE, PJM, ERCOT and WEST are projected to experience the highest levels of load growth extending to 2050. Offsetting load growth in this figure is EIR’s behind the meter residential solar and storage forecast.
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Data center load growth will add 153 GW of capacity by 2050. EIR believes that data center load estimates across the U.S. are overstated: load outlooks from ISOs often incorporate biases either to encourage new policy or add a margin of safety. Their model contains more realistic projections for each significant load segment using an unbiased and consistent methodology across the Lower 48.
Additionally, ERCOT base load stands out, reflecting Texas’ strong population growth and industrial base. Nevertheless, PJM and SE regions will continue to be the highest base load areas with the highest intraday variability. Exposure to large industrial load growth, such as data centers in areas such as the Dominion Zone in PJM (PJM DOM) and the North Central zone in ERCOT (ERCOT Northcentral), is the main factor driving higher load growth. EVs also have a strong impact in CAISO and the Northeastern states in ISONE, PJM and NYISO.
Research Highlights:
- ERCOT Fundamentals – Lighting the Lone Star – Gain valuable insights into the future of the ERCOT power market with Enverus Intelligence Research’s comprehensive report, covering generation mix projections, load forecasts, power price impacts, market restructuring, interconnection queues, asset benchmarking and project siting analysis.
- Data Center Alley – Capacity Running Out – This Fusion Insights analyzes load interconnect opportunities remaining in PJM and identifies prime locations to locate new data centers. Subscribers can download the nodal withdrawal capacity data file attachment and use Fusion to join it with our ATC or substation tables in Prism to recreate this dashboard.
- Long-Term Load Forecast – Returning to Growth – Our long-term power demand forecast model considers historical drivers of power demand across the Lower 48 and models variables that we think will impact future load, including data centers, electric vehicles, residential solar and storage, cryptocurrency mines, green hydrogen, CCUS and electrification trends. This report analyzes the effects that these new exponential load drivers will have on our power demand forecasts from 2024-2050.
About Enverus Intelligence®| Research
Enverus Intelligence® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations, and macro-economic forecasts and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies, and capital providers worldwide. EIR is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign investment adviser. Click here to learn more.
