Over the last century, power demand and supply have been unmistakably intertwined. However, with the addition of variable renewable power this is no longer the case. As the power industry shifts toward the adoption of sustainable resources, there is pressure to ensure generation and capacity meet growing demand. Intermittent generation resources such as solar and wind cannot be dispatched when the sun doesn’t shine or the wind doesn’t blow. As such, growth in additional, always dispatchable resources, such as natural gas, is needed to mitigate the discontinuity of these resources. Since battery assets are not cost-effective on a seasonal basis, Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR) predicts that adoption will be limited. In the meantime, natural gas additions are crucial to maintain grid balance.
The prevalence of volatile renewable energy is likely to result in overgeneration, creating potential challenges when not relying on dispatchable generation to meet peak demand. The future generation mix will be determined on a local scale based on load growth, retirements and existing availability. EIR’s optimal capacity expansion model, along with our risked interconnection queues, was able to build a realistic forecast of the generation mix, showing that solar and wind assets will be the most prevalent capacity additions in the next 25 years.
Join Enverus Intelligence® Research for the webinar, “Gas-Fired Generation | Power’s Burning Question,” and discover how natural gas will play a key role in powering the future, even as its role evolves amid the transition to renewable energy.
Research Highlights
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- Long-Term Capacity Expansion – Market Makeover –This report encompasses Enverus Intelligence Research’s capacity expansion model for the Lower 48, based on forecast load, risked interconnection queues and technology cost curves.
- Long-Term Load Forecast – Returning to Growth – Our long-term power demand forecast model considers historical drivers of power demand across the L48 and models variables that we believe will impact future load, including data centers, electric vehicles, residential solar and storage, cryptocurrency mines, green hydrogen, CCUS and electrification trends. This report analyzes the effects that these new exponential load drivers will have on our power demand forecasts from 2024-50.
- Renewable Diesel – Too Much of a Good Thing – The 2Q24 edition of the ETR team’s equity tracking report provides coverage across various energy transition sectors as well as integrated traditional energy businesses.
About Enverus Intelligence®| Research
Enverus Intelligence® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts, and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. EIR is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign investment adviser. Click here to learn more.
