Enverus Blog

New England Heatwave and Impact on Power Grid – Week of June 17, 2024

Record-Breading Temperatures

Northeastern parts of the U.S. faced a major heatwave June 17-21. New England saw record-high temperatures across the region for several days. Major cities like Boston, Hartford and Providence faced intense heat and temperatures peaked into the mid-90s during evening peak load hours. Heat index was also high and ranged between 100°-110°. First impact of the heatwave was seen June 18, when temperatures moved up too much above seasonal range. This was one of the hottest days for New England in June.

Impact on Power Grid

High temperatures increased the cooling demand during afternoon and evening peak load hours. Actual demand sharply moved up June 18 and reached 21.8GW, which was about 40% higher than average demand in this period of the year. Below screenshot shows the Enverus load forecast and percent to average peak load the morning of June 17. 

Price Spike Event

NEISO declared a level 1 emergency alert on June 18 at HE18. RT prices jumped to $2K. DART spread was highly negative at this price event. This price event occurred due to capacity scarcity condition caused by actual load much higher than the forecasted load, unplanned generator outage and reduced imports from neighboring control areas. Ongoing planned generation outages also contributed the shortage of supply. Natural gas generation is the major resources of the New England to serve the peak load. An OFO notice from the AGT spiked the natural gas prices from $1.90 to $3.70 a day before this event. High natural gas prices also impacted power prices.

The heatwave June 18 shows that ISONE needs more diverse energy mix to reduce the reliance on natural gas. More renewables such as offshore wind and solar can reduce such events in the future. Improvement in transmission infrastructure will also improve the reliability of the grid.

Enverus Press Release - Canadian oil sands: Back in the limelight

Canadian oil sands: Back in the limelight

CALGARY, Alberta (July 2, 2024) — Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS and generative AI company, has released a report that examines where Canadian oil sands assets fall on the North American cost curve.

“The often-overlooked Canadian oil sands represent nearly 40% of North America’s sub-$50 WTI breakeven oil resource,” said Dane Gregoris, managing director with EIR.  

“Oil sands businesses are particularly attractive to global investors today because of their long duration oil resource and newfound egress. This is especially relevant at a time where U.S. shale oil growth is slowing, and low-cost drilling inventory is becoming scarcer south of the border,” Gregoris said.

Key takeaways from the report:

  • The Canadian oil sands represent nearly 40% of North America’s sub-$50 WTI breakeven undeveloped oil resource and offer a compelling opportunity for investors and producers to extend duration in E&P asset portfolios.
  • Oil sands output exceeds 3 million barrels per day, the majority of which is extracted using steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) or surface mining techniques.
  • Integrated mining projects sit on the very low end of the North American cost curve while existing SAGD projects generally offer Permian-competitive resource breaking even between $40 and $50 WTI.

EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of Enverus products including Enverus Intelligence® Research and Enverus Foundations®.

You must be an Enverus Intelligence® subscriber to access this report.

About Enverus Intelligence Research
Enverus Intelligence® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections between energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. EIR is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign investment adviser. Enverus is the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering anytime, anywhere access to analytics and insights for more than 95% of U.S. energy producers and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.

Mdia Contact: Jon Haubert | 303.396.5996

View all press releases at Enverus.com/newsroom.

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Chinese Electric Vehicles | Up and to the Right

China has proven itself to be a leader in clean energy development across the board, with the nation installing more than 200 GW of solar capacity, surpassing the combined efforts of the rest of the world. As highlighted in Enverus Intelligence Research’s recent Global Energy Transition Outlook report, substantial public funding and supportive policies underpin the rapid expansion in China’s energy and automotive sectors. In 2023, major power enterprises invested ¥967.5 billion (US$133 billion) in power projects, a 30.1% year-over-year increase.

On the consumer side, China has quickly become the largest exporter of light-duty vehicles, mostly electric, with BYD surpassing Tesla in annual sales. This rapid market dominance underscores the country’s swift advancements in its automotive sector. Chinese EV manufacturers are also making significant strides in innovation and global market penetration, further solidifying China’s position as a global leader in EV production and technology. Meanwhile, Fisker’s recent bankruptcy highlights the challenges European and American EV manufacturers face in competing with high quality, lower cost Chinese models.

Please contact [email protected] if you have any issues accessing links or if you would like to learn more about Enverus products and services.

Highlights from Energy Transition Research:

  • Data Centers at the Crossroads – Key Themes Reshaping Energy Dynamics – This presentation dives into EIR’s differentiated view of data center demand growth. While the call for reliability, security and emissions reduction grows louder, gas-fired power generation remains a stalwart; the path forward necessitates the integration of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, offering a glimpse into a more sustainable future.
  • Breaking Down Decarbonization – Net-Zero Pathways for Permian Oil and Gas –This report serves as a roadmap for E&Ps on the path to net zero, focusing on the abatement solutions with the largest impact. We analyze the mitigation costs for the largest emissions sources across venting, flaring and combustion and present our findings in a marginal abatement cost curve to help operators prioritize projects.
  • Alberta’s Clean Hydrogen – Competing With Texas’ Finest – This report examines how the economics of blue and green hydrogen projects in Alberta compare to those in Texas, considering the quality of regional resources and available incentives.
Enverus Press Release - Enverus releases top 100 private E&P operators list

Enverus releases top 100 private E&P operators list

AUSTIN, Texas (June 25, 2024) — Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS and generative AI company, has released its annual list of the most prolific 100 private oil and gas producers in the U.S. based on gross operated production, well count and rig movements across last year. Continental Resources and Ascent Resources remain in the top two positions on the list, with Aethon Energy moving up to the third position, according to Enverus.

“Merger and acquisition activity, particularly those involving public buyers and private sellers during 2023, have reshuffled our rankings,” said Justin Lepore, lead consultant at Enverus and manager of Enverus’ Top 100 Private Operators list. “Inventory count and quality has also significantly driven private operator valuations, and in many cases, there has been a goal of growing production to become more attractive to takeout targets.”

“Regionally we see shifts too. In Appalachia, the acquisition of Rockcliff Energy by TG Natural Resources combined their positions into one, creating space for a new entrant onto our list. Chesapeake’s asset sales in the Gulf Coast led to Wildfire and INEOS Energy joining the list this year as well. In the Bakken, asset sales by Ovintiv and Crescent Point resulted in significant upward moves for Grayson Mills and Kraken, while a Permian acquisition by VTX Energy and the entry of public-Civitas into the Permian reshuffled the list, with Tap Rock assets moving down and Hibernia being removed. Overall, it might be Rockies-weighted operators who saw the biggest shift as they now make up a lesser proportion of the top 20 names on the list, with new additions from Permian and Mid-con operators filling that gap,” Lepore said.

“A list like this also shows the contribution from private operators, which accounted for approximately 36% of Lower-48 oil production in 2023, with around 70% of this volume coming from the Top 100 on the list. Production is increasingly held by large, public operators,” Lepore said.

The list, compiled utilizing Enverus Foundations® data from Enverus Foundations® and Activity Analytics, also includes a breakdown of liquids and gas production, total company well counts, recent rig programs and comparison to their rankings the previous year. The list was featured in Upstream Pulse, a bi-monthly report that covers exploration and production, deals and capital markets for the North American and global oil and gas sector.

top-100-private-lower-48-oil-producers-2023

About Enverus
Enverus is the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to maximize value from generative AI, offering anytime, anywhere access to analytics and insights. These include benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from more than 95% of U.S. energy producers and more than 40,000 suppliers. Our platform, with intelligent connections, drives more efficient production and distribution, capital allocation, renewable energy development, investment, and sourcing. Our experienced industry experts support our customers through thought leadership, consulting, and technology innovations. We provide intelligence across the energy ecosystem: renewables, oil and gas, financial institutions, and power and utilities, with more than 6,000 customers in 50 countries. Learn more at Enverus.com.

Enverus Blog - Royalty M&A 2023 debut: Kimbell’s Midland Basin $143M buy

Data Centers | Trading the Growth Story

ipp-stock-performance-since-may20

The hype around data center growth and associated power demand is high and wide-ranging. Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR) has developed a proprietary data center load forecast that has been helping power project developers identify business expansion opportunities, as well as potential equity trades, based on our forecast load growth. Our recent report, AI-Driven IPP Expectations: VST Not the Data Center Darling, identified lower exposure to data center-led growth for VST relative to NRG and CEG, and our expectation for relative underperformance. 

Our proprietary data center load forecast, which is highly conservative relative to sell- and gas supply-side viewpoints, enabled the unique analysis. We analyzed each IPP’s portfolio to calculate a load growth-weighted available capacity metric, identifying power plants likely to be called upon more often in the regions with the most growth. To learn more about our data center view, click here or sign up for the weekly newsletter.

Note: The research report discussed is an example of the type of analysis and advice offered by EIR. Results from one report does not represent the entirety of investment outcomes associated with EIR’s research, and results can vary significantly.

Highlights from Energy Transition Research:

may20-did-you-know
Enverus News Release - Going green with hydrogen

Green Hydrogen | Europe’s Energy Security Blanket

Research Report : Enverus Intelligence® Vault – Figure 8

As global political tensions escalate, Europe is undertaking a crucial balancing act – meeting ambitious decarbonization targets while ensuring its energy security. To bridge this gap, the EU has crafted a strategic plan that leverages local resources and renewable power to reduce its reliance on Russian natural gas. Recognizing that renewables alone cannot meet all industrial or baseload power needs, the continent aims to produce 10 mtpa of clean hydrogen and import an additional 10 mtpa by 2030, with a focus on green hydrogen given its lower carbon intensity.

This requires a monumental effort to coordinate massive-scale renewable energy development, clean hydrogen production and infrastructure construction to service all EU nations. The plan aims for 1.1 TW of renewable energy capacity, a 2.3x increase from 2022 levels (Figure 1). The production of 10 mtpa of green hydrogen domestically would require 22% of the EU’s planned 2030 renewable capacity, significantly impacting the electricity available to the grid.

Highlights from Energy Transition Research:

Enverus Press Release - Surfing Europe’s green wave

Surfing Europe’s green wave

CALGARY, Alberta (June 12, 2024) — Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS and generative AI company, has released new research that evaluates Europe’s clean hydrogen landscape, analyzing how policies and incentives drive adoption and comparing industry activity to European Union (EU) targets. Key challenges noted in EIR’s report include achieving 2030 targets, scaling up production, accelerating infrastructure development and securing firm investments to cement Europe’s leadership in clean hydrogen.

“The EU is unlikely to meet its 2030 clean hydrogen transportation and import targets without a concerted effort to begin construction on new pipeline and port infrastructure. Without it, clean molecules from export markets like North America could be left stranded,” said Alex Nevokshonoff, analyst at EIR. “Europe must address three key elements to successfully implement clean hydrogen into its energy landscape,” added Donald Campbell, Global Scout – Global Manager for Energy Transition at Enverus and contributor to the report.

“First, there must be a greater focus on the development of the EU’s hydrogen transmission infrastructure to ensure efficient distribution and integration. Second, increasing the number of hydrogen projects reaching FID is essential to move the industry from ideation to implementation. Lastly, enhancing incentive values and simplifying funding eligibility can help lower green hydrogen production costs. Without sufficient funding mechanisms, green hydrogen cannot economically compete with conventional fuels,” Campbell said.

Key takeaways from the report:

  • Europe’s hydrogen transmission and port infrastructure targets are unlikely to be met. Only 12 km of its hydrogen transmission network has been commissioned to date, compared to its 2030 target of 28,000 km.
  • Although green H2 production is on the rise throughout Europe, current efforts are not enough to meet the RePowerEU 2030 target of 10 mtpa, with most projects currently sitting in the non-binding/pre-FID stage. A “less talk, more action” approach is needed to transform the projects from ideation to implementation.
  • Europe leads the U.S. in green hydrogen projects while the U.S. focuses on blue hydrogen, supported by the 45Q tax credit. Europe’s green focus is driven by aggressive renewable energy/emissions targets, uninhibited by oil and gas prices.
  • Green hydrogen production costs remain high and uncompetitive with conventional fuels without substantial financial support mechanisms. Strategic subsidies can help bridge this cost gap.
enverus-graph-showing-renewable-energy-capacity-vs-renewable-targets

EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of Enverus products including Enverus Intelligence® Research.

You must be an Enverus Intelligence® subscriber to access this report.

About Enverus Intelligence Research
Enverus Intelligence® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections between energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. EIR is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign investment adviser. Enverus is the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering anytime, anywhere access to analytics and insights for more than 95% of U.S. energy producers and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.

Media Contact: Jon Haubert | 303.396.5996

View all press releases at Enverus.com/newsroom.

risk-manager-sector

Act on Global Energy Anomalies Fast With the New Enverus | Kpler Partnership

The Challenges of Maintaining a Data-Driven Global View

In the fast-paced world of energy commodity trading, staying ahead demands more than just raw data. Insightful, actionable intelligence allows you to forecast, plan and respond to global market shifts confidently.

If you cannot confidently rely on the quality of your insights, how can you meet the challenge of managing a successful trading plan? How can you answer important questions, including:

  • How do I forecast refined product sales and crude oil purchasing requirements by region?
  • How does a significant global event, like the Red Sea attacks, impact my trading strategy?
  • Is there a seasonal trend or a disparity in expected LNG flows?

Analyzing Global Trade Just Became Much Simpler

The new Kpler and Enverus partnership revolutionizes market analysis, transforming complex, disparate information into clear, actionable insights directly within MarketView®. This allows traders to quickly adapt strategies and capitalize on opportunities with confidence.

With our solution, you can:

  1. Gain a comprehensive view faster: Merge fragmented analyses into a unified, intuitive dashboard. Fast-track your market understanding and decision-making process.
  2. Get precise and accurate insights: Explore beyond one-size-fits-all solutions with tailored analysis options. Discover your trading edge with flexibility across commodities and market dynamics.
  3. Anticipate price trends: Spot market anomalies or price trends to anticipate changes impacting your trading strategy before they happen and obtain useful insights.

You can access our combined solution through the MarketView® trading analytics platform. There are three different packages you can choose from:

Snapshots: Empower your planning with a panoramic market view, integrating history with forecast in an intuitive interface. Perfect for crafting informed, strategic outlooks for all leadership levels.

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Trade Flows Dashboard: A comprehensive, integrated platform for the market. Benefit from the combined workflow of Kpler trade flow and Enverus pricing data to swiftly identify market anomalies and act on them!

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Are You Ready for a Holistic View of the Global Commodity Market?

  1. Access our Partnership Website to learn more.
  2. Speak with our team of experts to find the solution that works for you.
  3. Start acting on premium global trade analytics.
nuclear-worker

Advanced Reactors | The Tech of Tomorrow

Research Report : Enverus Intelligence® Vault – Figure 3

Innovations in nuclear energy are being pursued on a scale not seen since the 1950s and 1960s, with the advanced reactor (AR) industry nearing a pivotal transformation. This momentum, along with the necessary strategic investments, is driven by the expectation of increased demand for lower-carbon energy across various applications. With 98 unique designs in development across major markets such as the U.S., Canada and the U.K., the sector is primed for significant growth.

Commercial differentiation based on diverse thermal power and temperature outputs holds promise for AR technology to address specific energy requirements, including electricity generation, desalination, high-temperature industrial processes and hydrogen production. Enverus Intelligence Research currently tracks 56 small modular reactor projects globally along with their location, specifications and use cases.

Highlights from Energy Transition Research:

  • Surfing the Green Wave – Hydrogen in Europe –This report delves into the impact of policy frameworks propelling Europe’s clean hydrogen evolution while scrutinizing the ramifications of potential shortfalls in meeting 2030 green hydrogen targets. With a focus on key regions and industries, the report assesses the production dynamics and demand drivers of green hydrogen, alongside an evaluation of transmission networks and import strategies. Finally, we juxtapose costs to unveil the economic viability of green hydrogen against conventional fuels.
  • Battery Storage – Best Practices for Investment, Siting and Development – This presentation ranks the most attractive regions for battery storage developers looking to enter or expand in the U.S. market.
  • Treasure Chest 1Q24 – Early Access Datasets for Strategic Analysis – The Energy Transition Research (ETR) team creates and uses a variety of analytics datasets to produce our insights. Many are best consumed integrated with our Enverus PRISM® solutions and some will ultimately become part of established analytics products. ETR clients have early access to these analytics and can incorporate them into their PRISM experience using Enverus’ proprietary Fusion Connect technology. We are pleased to share these datasets with ETR clients in a Fusion-ready format.
Innovations in nuclear energy are being pursued on a scale not seen since the 1950s and 1960s, with the advanced reactor (AR) industry nearing a pivotal transformation.
Enverus Press Release - Operational efficiencies are driving cost excellence in North America’s onshore drilling

Operational efficiencies are driving cost excellence in North America’s onshore drilling

CALGARY, Alberta (June 5, 2024) — Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS and generative AI company, has released new research that analyzes which oil and gas plays show the greatest rate of increase in drilling speeds and whether well costs correlate with drilling speeds. In addition, the report looks at how well designs are affecting drilling efficiencies.

“Cost reduction efforts to improve capital efficiency are top of mind for every operator these days. Drilling speed improvements, driven by larger-scale operations and changes to wellbore design, have a measurable impact on well costs, and operators that have the best drilling performance tend to have the lowest costs in a basin,” said Steve Diederichs, a director at EIR and author of the new report.

“Rigs across major unconventional basins last year were 30% more efficient at drilling productive lateral feet per total rig day compared to 2019. In the Permian, the Texas-New Mexico play that produces the most oil in America, the improvement jumped to 35%” Diederichs said.

Key takeaways from the report:

  • Rigs across major unconventional basins last year were 30% more efficient at drilling productive lateral feet per total rig day compared to 2019.
  • Drilling speeds are better correlated with the E&P than the rig provider. We see reasonable correlations between faster drilling speeds and lower-cost operators in both the Permian and Eagle Ford.
  • A higher well count on a pad enables batch drilling and is typically associated with faster drilling speeds. The Midland screens more positively than the Delaware in terms of operators pivoting to larger-scale, pad-level operations.
Enverus-press-release-graph-lateral-footage-per-total-rig-day

EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of Enverus products including Enverus Intelligence® Research, Activity Analytics, DSU Analytics and Forecast Analytics.

You must be an Enverus Intelligence® subscriber to access this report.

About Enverus Intelligence Research
Enverus Intelligence® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections between energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. EIR is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign investment adviser. Enverus is the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering anytime, anywhere access to analytics and insights for more than 95% of U.S. energy producers and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.

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