Trading and Risk

How Utilities Can Mitigate Price Risk With Enverus Forecasts

byRob Allerman

Third-party power forecasts are key when ISOs provide inaccurate load projections.

 

Power market participants in the PJM, a regional transmission organization covering a large swath of the northeastern U.S., may remember Oct. 1, 2019 for the rest of their careers.

PJM power traders that relied on their local ISO for load forecasting began the fourth quarter of 2019 on the wrong foot. As a heat wave swept across the U.S., real-time prices spiked above $600/MW on Oct. 1, 2019. The ISO missed the load forecast for the day by more than 10,000 MWs. This error cost utilities millions of dollars for one day of above-average temperatures.

ENVERUS MACHINE LEARNING BASED FORECASTS ELIMINATE HUMAN ERROR

The event demonstrated the importance of consulting with third-party forecasters like the Enverus Trading & Risk PRT solution. Peak load in the PJM rose to 141% of its average level that day. Utilities depending on ISO forecasts lost millions of dollars in revenue.

Even if your utility is not based in PJM, there’s much to learn from the fateful day in which real-time prices spiked above $600/MW.

READ OUR STUDY to find out how PJM utilities would have fared if they had planned their load using our PRT forecast.

Picture of Rob Allerman

Rob Allerman

Rob Allerman is Senior Director of Power Analytics at Enverus. Before joining Enverus, Rob was Head of North America Power Analytics at EDF Power Trading in Houston, Texas, and spent many years as a power analyst at Deutsche Bank. Rob also worked in the western U.S. for nearly 10 years at Power Utilities and started his career as a Hydrologist for the Federal Government.

Subscribe to the Enverus Blog

A weekly update on the latest “no-fluff” insight and analysis of the energy industry.

Related Content

data-center-demand
Energy Transition
ByAdam Robinson, Enverus Intelligence® | Research (EIR) Contributor

Explosive growth in artificial intelligence and the increasing prevalence of cryptocurrency mining are sending data center expansion through the roof.

energy-transition-power-and-renewables-hero-image
Power and Renewables
ByEvan Powell

Arizona Public Service (APS) is the largest energy provider in Arizona, serving about 1.4 million customers across the state. Its territory has emerged as a prime location for renewable energy and battery storage development, largely due to Arizona's abundant solar...

nuclear-worker
Energy Transition
ByAmyra Mardhani

The rapid adoption of AI has created exponential demand for data centers. Hyperscalers such as Microsoft, Google and Amazon require reliable, low-carbon electricity to power future data centers, leading to a renewed interest in nuclear energy.

Enverus Press Release - Enverus Earns Top Workplaces Honors for Fourth Consecutive Year
Other
BySusie Yuill

Discover why the Enverus EVOLVE 2025 Conference, happening May 12–15 in Houston, is the must-attend energy event of the year. Gain exclusive insights into market trends, network with industry leaders, and learn practical strategies to power your business forward.

ofs
Oilfield Services
ByAdriana Bickford

Discover how the Enverus OFS Directory can elevate your oilfield services business. Learn the top 5 benefits of joining, from real-time bid tracking to direct communication with operators, helping you gain visibility and win new contracts.

Enverus Press Release - Updated US residential solar and storage forecast predicts major shifts in power demand by 2050
Power and Renewables
ByRob Allerman

As winter approaches, it’s critical that power traders, analysts and asset managers stay up to date about shifting dynamics in the power markets. Our Winter 2024 Power Market Outlook webinar explored the latest developments for the New York Independent System...

Enverus Press Release - Enverus reveals Texas’ renewable energy hot shots
Power and Renewables
ByRob Allerman

Prepare for Winter 2024 with insights on MISO, PJM, and SPP power markets. Explore weather forecasts, renewable energy developments, and price trends to stay ahead this season.

Enverus Press Release - No pain, no gain: Short-term headwinds for natural gas could bring beneficial long-term tailwinds
Other
ByBryn Davies

Enverus’ Commitment to Fostering a Global Quality of Life Introduction The Switch Competition is an exciting global event that brings together the brightest university students to tackle real-world energy challenges. This year, several members of Enverus had the privilege of...

Enverus Press Release - Hydrogen hype meets reality in EIR’s inaugural fundamentals report
Power and Renewables
ByEvan Michalec

Discover how Enverus PRISM streamlines the renewable energy RFP search process, saving time and increasing efficiency. Learn how to find and filter RFPs, track trends and optimize project siting with advanced geospatial tools.

Let’s get started!

We’ll follow up right away to show you a quick product tour.

Let’s get started!

We’ll follow up right away to show you a quick product tour.

Sign up for our Blog

Register Today

Sign Up

Power Your Insights

Connect with an Expert

Access Product Tour

Speak to an Expert